FLOW ROUTING MODELS FOR STREAM SYSTEM STUDIES1

ABSTRACT. Studies to determine frequency characteristics of regulated streams at points within a stream system require the use of flow routing models. This study compares several different flow routing methods using data from six river reaches. Results indicate that approximate flow routing methods yield good flow estimates when compared with observed flows. The unit response method, recently introduced, performed as well as other approximate methods for all reaches studied and gave better results for reaches subject to power releases.     

SOME TECHNIQUES FOR USING FREQUENCY ANALYSIS AND REALTIME DATA TO INTERPRET FLOOD POTENTIAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: Flood potential data can be effectively interpreted if simple frequency analysis concepts are used to explain the significance of flood potential. Instead of simply presenting data as a quantitative amount or as a percentage of the average condition, predictions can be discussed in terms of their probabilities of exceedance, or return periods. Criteria are presented for evaluating the significance of various return periods. Frequency interpretations are applied to snow course data, peak flow forecasts, and streamflow volume forecasts in northern Utah to illustrate these concepts. In addition, access to realtime data allows tracking of snowmelt progression and identification of any deviations from the forecast flood potential situation. Several data elements, including snowpack, streamfiow volume and peak, and realtime data are jointly evaluated to assess potential hazard and probable risk.     

CLASSIFICATION OF EVALUATION OF FLOOD FLOW FREQUENCY ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT: The literature abounds with procedures for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged locations. Unfortunately, the large number of available procedures creates an awesome task for potential users of sorting and selecting a method for immediate use. The objectives of this paper are to present (1) criteria that are necessary to evaluate the usefulness of hydrologic procedures, (2) to present a classification system for categorizing the multitude of procedures that are available, (3) to summarize the findings of the literature review, and (4) to make recommendations on reporting of flood frequency estimation procedures on ungaged watersheds.     

DETERMINISTIC-SYSTEMIC RELATIONSHIPS IN OVERLAND FLOW ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of storm runoff is presented, giving primary attention to deterministic-systemic relationships. So that system aspects can be emphasized, other aspects are kept simple; analysis is made for uniform rainfall on a strip of uniform width, limiting direct applicability to small areas. Two relationships between excess rain and time of concentration, one based on hydraulic parameters, the other on hydrologic characteristics, are combined in a solution for peak discharge. The hydraulic expression gives the interrelationship of time of concentration, excess rain, friction, length, and slope. The hydrologic relationship is achieved by converting ordinary intensity-duration curves to corresponding excess rain intensity-duration curves, thereby interrelating excess rain, time of concentration, and loss characteristics. The resulting solution for peak discharge allows for systemic feedback among both hydraulic and hydrologic parameters.     

改进灵敏度矩阵的矿井通风故障源诊断及传感器布置研究

利用当前的矿井通风安全监测监控系统,只能反映安设风速传感器的井巷风量发生变化,至于变化是由该条巷道故障引起的,还是由于拓扑关系原因引起的,都无法诊断故障源,通风系统的故障可以归结为分支的风阻发生变化。如果分析每一条分支风阻变化对通风系统的影响,即每一条分支都安设风速传感器是不可能的。因此,井下风速传感器的布置最小数量及位置问题也是研究的重点。改进灵敏度矩阵,建立分支灵敏度0-1矩阵和通风网络故障巷道范围库,用以确定可能引起风速超限的故障巷道范围。最后,提出最少全覆盖布点法,给出分支覆盖度和影响巷道范围库的概念,用以求得风速传感器的宏观布点。     

基于物联网技术的实时应急疏散调度研究

应急疏散过程中,除节点上的疏散任务,弧路径上也可能出现相应的疏散需求。为有效地处理弧路径上的疏散需求,进行更加实时和高效的疏散决策,基于物联网技术,考虑弧路径上的疏散需求,建立有限资源约束下的单车种,多需求,多时段,多源多汇的疏散问题的单目标混合整数规划模型,从疏散成本的角度将疏散节点和疏散路径上的需求整合在疏散模型中。最后引入实际案例,使用CPLEX对模型进行数值仿真和结果分析。研究表明,基于更加实时的疏散信息获取和反馈,装载无线射频识别(RFID)的救护车能够同调度中心协同做出最优的疏散决策方案,同时处理疏散节点和弧路径上的疏散需求。     

纵向通风条件下隧道坡度对火灾烟气流动影响的实验研究

纵向通风是隧道烟气控制的常用手段之一,若风速足够大,烟气会保证向一个方向蔓延,达到纵向排烟的目的,但同时过大的风速可能会破坏烟气层结构,造成烟气层紊乱,危害到地面附近疏散的人群。因此隧道排烟的策略应是在保证烟气层维持一定时间分层的前提下合理排烟。在实际中,很多隧道都是存在坡度的,这就可能产生烟囱效应,导致倾斜隧道内烟气的扩散速度会与水平隧道不同,进而影响到纵向通风排烟策略。本文采用比例模型的实验方法,对不同坡度及纵向通风风速条件下隧道内火灾烟气流动规律进行了研究。结果表明,隧道坡度越大冷空气卷吸越强烈,烟气降温越快,烟气沉降速度也越快。同时初步得到了本实验条件下的烟气分层化临界风速,并与理论分析结果吻合得较好,为研究烟气的运动情况和人员疏散方案提供重要参考依据。     

Trends in Rainfall Exceedances in the Observed Record in Selected Areas of the United States1

Bonnin, Geoffrey M., Kazungu Maitaria, and Michael Yekta, 2011. Trends in Rainfall Exceedances in the Observed Record in Selected Areas of the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6): 1173–1182. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00603.x Abstract: Semantic differences have led to a gap in the understanding of the impacts of climate change on precipitation frequency estimates. There is popular perception that heavy rainfalls have become more frequent, and that this trend will increase with global warming. Most of the literature examines this question from the point of view of climatology using definitions of “heavy,”“very heavy,” or “extreme” rainfall, which are different from those commonly used by civil engineers. This article identifies the differences in meaning used by the climate and civil engineering communities and examines trends in the observed record in the frequency of exceedances (not trends in magnitudes). Using concepts recognized as the basis for design of the Nation’s civil infrastructure, we look at trends in the number of exceedances of thresholds for a variety of precipitation frequencies and event durations used by civil engineers. We found that the estimated trends in exceedances at one‐day and multiday durations were statistically significant and increasing for the Ohio River Basin and surrounding states but the reverse was true for the Semiarid Southwest (i.e., not significant and decreasing trends). In addition, we found the magnitude of the trends was small for all but the more frequent events and also small with respect to the uncertainty associated with the precipitation frequency estimates themselves.     

流域污染物通量测算方法研究

流域水系内污染物通量不仅能够用于评价各类污染源的水污染物入河负荷,也是对流域污染特征,水污染物在河流水体中复杂迁移、转化过程的最直观反应。准确测算流域水系内污染物跨界通量及其时空分布是进行流域水环境风险预警和风险管理的重要前提之一。针对目前多种污染物通量测算方法在进行污染物年通量估算时,结果不确定性大这一突出问题,以流域水质监测站年内逐日流量、悬浮颗粒物监测数据作为悬浮颗粒物年通量参考值,基于以月、半月、周为周期的监测策略,将逐日流量、悬浮颗粒物监测数据重新筛选抽样构造,由此,系统分析了不同流域集水面积、污染通量监测频次和目前常用通量估算方法对污染物年通量估算不确定性的影响。所得方法和结论可为进一步制定流域污染物通量的测算规范提供方法指引和技术支持。     

原煤卸围压过程微震信号响应特征*

为了研究煤体采动卸荷失稳破坏的微震动态响应规律,基于热流固耦合三轴试验机进行含瓦斯原煤卸围压试验采集试验过程中的微震信号,进行连续小波变换及4层小波包变换,识别煤样破裂信号,提出煤样破裂干扰信号的时频特征及相应的微震事件分布与破坏演变的特征。研究结果表明:加载初期甚至整个轴压增加过程中,煤样内部裂隙被压密,无新裂隙产生,基本无微震事件,开始卸围压时煤样破裂数量迅速增加;内部裂纹扩展信号主频为700 Hz,前期煤样内部裂纹扩展缓慢,事件产生频次低;煤样破坏信号主频为800 Hz,其频率跳变异常,信号频率成分无明显分带;煤样破坏时微震信号能量最大,破坏过程中伴随不同部位间相对位移,产生摩擦、揉搓,破坏频率成分复杂;煤样破坏时微震事件频数最大LH-2事件总数为176,破坏时每分钟事件数为76,破坏后事件数为92,分别占总事件比例43%,52%;LH-3破坏事件数及破坏后事件数分别占比36%,62%。